my country's power lithium battery market presents a diversified development trend
Under the explosive rise in sales of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have also ushered in the "highlight moment" of the explosion of installed capacity, and their development prospects are bright. Facing the goal of global carbon emissions, the sustainable development of the power lithium-ion battery industry chain is particularly important. How to balance carbon emission goals and sustainable development is also a test for the power lithium-ion battery industry.
On December 2nd, the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association, made a speech on "Promoting the Sustainable Rise of New Energy Vehicles". report on the subject. The report introduces the development of new energy vehicles from four aspects: vehicle technology, sustainable battery development, charging and swapping, smart energy for electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel and fuel-powered lithium batteries. Thinking deserves our attention.
La maduresa de la tecnologia de les bateries d'ions de liti-potència posa les bases per a l'explosió de les vendes de vehicles elèctrics
In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will enter a stage of explosive growth, and the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show a trend of rapid monthly increase. Industry data show that from January to November 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country's market reached 2.99 million, and the annual sales in 2021 are expected to reach 3.3 million. Ouyang Minggao predicts that my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022.
Com a component bàsic dels vehicles elèctrics, la bateria d'ions de liti de potència-, la seva tecnologia continua millorant, el cost es redueix, el disseny de l'estructura del sistema de bateries continua innovant, la fulla, el CTP i altres processos innovadors s'apliquen a a gran escala i la tecnologia de la bateria de fosfat de ferro de liti continua madurant. L'auge dels vehicles energètics ha establert una base sòlida.
Ouyang Minggao va dir que, a partir de la demanda de llarga durada de la bateria dels vehicles d'energia nova, les bateries d'ions de liti-potencials encara s'estan avançant cap a una alta-energia específica i un alt-níquel-liti ternari{{ 3}}bateries d'ions o bateries d'ions de liti-líquids sòlids d'alt-níquel ternari-. Millorar la densitat d'energia de les bateries d'ions de liti-potencials.
When new energy vehicles enter a period of fierce competition, the improvement of battery technology will play an important role in the competition of new energy vehicles in my country. At present, my country's battery technology occupies a leading position in the world. Ouyang Minggao said that my country's battery industry chain is relatively complete, and 70 percent of the world's battery production is in my country. It is difficult to shake the competitiveness of my country's power lithium-ion battery industry in a short period of time. He also pointed out that, however, other countries have not relaxed their research on battery technology, and Japan, the United States and other countries strongly support a new generation of high-performance power lithium-ion batteries represented by solid-state batteries, "but the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology has not affected the market. It is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the pattern to have an important impact. The scale of my country's RD team in the battery field is far ahead in the world, and young talents are coming out in large numbers.
L'augment de la capacitat instal·lada condueix a la realització del desenvolupament sostenible de tota la cadena industrial
En l'actualitat, amb l'augment de la producció i les vendes de vehicles d'energia nova, també ha augmentat la capacitat instal·lada de bateries d'ions de liti{0}}energètics. De gener a setembre de 2021, s'instal·len al mercat xinès un total de 92 GWh de bateries d'ions de liti-potencials i s'espera que arribi als 150 GWh durant tot l'any. Ouyang Minggao va dir que s'espera que l'any 2025 la càrrega de la bateria d'ions de liti-potència al mercat xinès sigui d'uns 600 GWh, i que el 2030 serà de 1500-2000 GWh. Segons el nombre de vehicles d'energia nova, es pot predir que el nombre total de bateries de vehicles al meu país superarà els 2000 GWh el 2025, els 7000 GWh el 2030 i els 15000 GWh el 2035.
A causa del mercat calent de vehicles elèctrics, les empreses de bateries aigües amunt també estan ampliant la producció ràpidament. Ouyang Minggao va dir que la indústria actual de les bateries d'ions de liti-potencial ha entrat en un període de poca oferta. Segons les estadístiques, la producció prevista de bateries d'ions de liti-al meu país arribarà als 1.000 GWh el 2023 i prop dels 2.500 GWh el 2025.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of production has stimulated the cyclical price increase of upstream materials in the battery industry, causing the entire industry to worry about the shortage of raw material resources. Regarding the reserves of lithium ore, cobalt ore, nickel ore, etc., the economic recoverable reserves of global lithium resources are 21 million tons, and the total exploration reserves are 86 million tons. Ouyang Minggao said, "The total exploration reserves have continued to increase in recent years, and the problem of raw materials does not seem to be large."
The industry's concerns are not unreasonable. The limited reserves of cobalt resources and the uneven distribution of global resources are the focus of the industry's concerns. Cobalt resources, the economically exploitable reserves are only 7.1 million tons, and the global resource distribution is extremely uneven. 2/3 of the cobalt mines are dependent on the Congo (Gold) in Africa; 3/4 of the lithium mines are distributed in Australia, Chile, Argentina, etc. Country; half of nickel mines depend on Indonesia and Russia.
It is worth noting that the battery "carbon footprint" is also very worthy of attention. According to Ouyang Minggao, different types of batteries have different life cycle carbon emissions. Taking the ternary high-nickel 811 lithium-ion battery as an example, the carbon emission per kilowatt-hour of the whole life cycle is about 87 kilograms. The relatively high carbon emission of ternary batteries is mainly due to the positive electrode material. Carbon emissions from the preparation of precursors and cathode materials account for half of the total emissions of ternary batteries. Compared with the ternary NCM811 battery, the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of the lithium iron phosphate battery is about one third less.
In order to solve the problem of battery carbon emissions, many domestic battery companies are currently shifting their production to the west, such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai and other places, making full use of the "green electricity" resources in the western region. For example, the battery production plan in Sichuan Province has reached 500GWh, of which Yibin has 160GWh.
La ruta de la tecnologia de les bateries ha entrat a l'era del desenvolupament diversificat
Tot i que la bateria d'ió de liti-de potència actual és habitual, també té llocs que no es poden cobrir. Els vehicles elèctrics equipats amb bateries d'ions de liti-energètics estan distribuïts de manera desigual a la Xina i la majoria d'ells es concentren a les regions del sud, el centre i l'est de la Gran Muralla. Les zones al nord de la Gran Muralla, oest i nord-oest no estan molt distribuïdes.
En aquest sentit, les bateries de liti alimentades amb combustible d'hidrogen-, que han anat entrant gradualment a l'atenció pública en els darrers anys, existeixen al mercat dels vehicles d'energia nova juntament amb les bateries d'ions de liti- d'energia per la seva abundant matèria primera. emmagatzematge, neteja amb baix-carboni i producció comercial a gran-escala. Si els dos poden formar una forma complementària, millorarà molt la disposició dels vehicles d'energia nova a la indústria de l'automòbil i es podrà aconseguir millor i més ràpidament l'objectiu de reduir les emissions de carboni.
Ouyang Minggao said that the breakthrough in hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery technology is almost ten years later than that of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the cost of hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries is in a period of rapid decline and will usher in an explosion. The hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery has entered the stage of large-scale commercial demonstration, and five ministries including the Ministry of Finance have launched the national hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle application demonstration project. For example, Beijing is recently implementing a demonstration project of fuel-powered lithium battery vehicles "Hydrogen Mobility for the Winter Olympics".
Ouyang Minggao també va assenyalar que la disposició dels vehicles elèctrics amb energia d'hidrogen també s'hauria de tenir en compte: complir l'objectiu d'un-netet i baix en carboni i aconseguir nous avenços en la tecnologia de l'energia de l'hidrogen mitjançant la innovació tecnològica. Prendre el mercat com a líder, desplegar l'energia d'hidrogen segons les condicions locals i superar les dificultats i mancances actuals de l'energia de l'hidrogen.
It should be noted that the current power lithium-ion battery market has entered an explosive period, and its dominant position will be difficult to shake in a short period of time. Hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries will also take the opportunity to develop, but its volume and scale, and even technology and talent reserves, They are unable to compete with the main body of lithium-ion batteries, so that my country's power lithium-ion battery market has formed a market structure dominated by lithium-ion batteries and supplemented by hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries, showing a diversified development trend of blooming flowers.
